When do the markets turn (if they turn)?

The (liquidity-driven) market turning points in April and May

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

This week has been another turbulent week at the markets. First, U.S. stock markets fell on Monday because tariff-wars escalated and because President Trump threatened the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Yesterday markets rallied because President Trump has “no intention to fire” Chair Powell.

Investors seem to generally fail to understand that we are (most likely) at the end of a very long bull-run. Major turning points (from a bear market to a bull market and vice versa) typically see high market volatility. We are definitely in one now, which has been exacerbated by the actions of President Trump.

We at GnS Economics have warned about the April market downdraft and volatility several times. On 12 March, we noted:

We are currently assuming that the market downdraft is/has been a much needed correction driven by fear over tariffs and economic growth, with strong global liquidity injections providing support for markets. In this case, we would see markets bottoming out in April or early May (when liquidity injections are set to increase), unless tariff-wars truly flare up, which is naturally also possible.

We also know that China is likely to inject major amounts of liquidity into the financial system in May and June, which has often led to fierce rallies.¹ This explains why the early-summer rally has been a market trend for years.

Money supply from China, and the Eurozone, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Source: GnS Economics, Theglobaleconomy.com.

If the markets turn upwards in April or May due to the inflowing liquidity, when would this occur?