This Outlook has five parts, instead of the usual four (Forecasts, China Stimulus, Economic Indicators and the Outlook), because we, exceptionally, publish the list of the most-safe banks of the U.S. in this report. In November, we ran three loan loss scenarios for U.S. banks based on Q3 banking data, entitled: soft-landing, Great Financial Crisis (GFC) 2.0 and the Great Depression 2.0. The banking-sector-wide results were published in the November World Economic Outlook.
Here, we list the banks who survived from the Great Depression 2.0 scenario. Worryingly, only 105 banks survived this extreme stress test. They can be considered as the most-safe banks in the U.S. We, naturally, also map the state of the global recession.
GDP Forecasts
(GnS Economics, OECD, Q-to-Q). The first estimate on the U.S. GDP for Q4 imply that the economy has grown by 0.6% (3.3% annualized) during the last quarter. Our last nowcast from early January was 0.7%. First estimate for the Eurozone indicates that the GDP growth flatlined, which was also our nowcast (from early January). Our current nowcasts indicate that the Finnish economy would have succumbed further in Q4.
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