Why subscribe?
We are glad you’re here (please see the terms of our service from below). Our mission is simply to:
Forecast (speculate on) future developments, based on what's possible with special emphasis of uncovering future Black Swan -events.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes a Black Swan in his path-breaking book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, as an event which (1) lies outside the realm of regular expectations, (2) carries an extreme impact, and (3) to which we (humans) associate explanations (and probabilities) ex post facto making the even look like explainable and predictable. Such events have caused losses in the trillions of dollars to investors, households and corporations alike. As we have seen during past years, such cataclysmic events range from a highly transmittable virus, to collapse of the banking sector and into wars.
Generally Black Swan events are considered to be unpredictable. However, the fact is that we live in a world guarded by (relative) strict physical laws, which dictate that all future events need to have their imprint in the physical realm. This 'law' applies to all events whether natural, economical or political. This implies that all major Black Swan events are forecastable in a sense that their need to occur within the boundaries of physical, and economic, realms. To put this in another way, with enough background information and creativity, we can imagine all possible future developments.
Moreover, future consists of scenarios. This means that in each point in time, any conceivable future path for the individual, society, economy and the markets exists with some probability. These are determined by endogenous (within system or inborn) and exogenous (outside system or external) factors, with the latter being relatively rare. But sometimes they appear, like we have recently witnessed with the emergence of the Corona-virus and the rather questionable response of lockdowns by our respective governments. Yet, the fact that economic, financial and geopolitical developments, like banking crises and wars, are inherently inborn (endogenous) makes them forecastable (imaginable), while forecasting the exact timing of their emergence is cumbersome to the point of impossibility.
Our mission is to use our knowledge on the 'physical realm' and information we constantly accumulate to shield you from Black Swan events, mostly in finance, the economy and geopolitics, by making them visible before they hit. We do this by presenting the information we have gathered in scenarios of possible (likely) future developments. We especially concentrate on the worst-case scenario, i.e., the negative Black Swan events.
Terms of service
Monthly Subscriptions
A Monthly Subscription includes a recurring one month access to the newsletter and the archive.
Monthly Subscriptions will renew automatically unless we receive notice to not renew your subscription. Cancellation takes effect after the renewal period, and you will not be charged for the next renewal. Cancellation can be done through subscription management in the customer account or by emailing: contact@gnseconomics.com
Annual Subscriptions
An Annual Subscription includes a recurring 12-month access to the newsletter and the archive.
Annual Subscriptions will renew automatically unless we receive notice to not renew your subscription. Cancellation takes effect after the renewal period, and you will not be charged for the next renewal. Cancellation can be done through subscription management through Substack or by emailing: contact@gnseconomics.com.
Please note that we provide no refunds on cancellations of ongoing subscriptions.
