Weekly Forecasts 9/2024
A possible fraud in the U.S. Presidential elections (Free)
Like you have probably noticed, we are updating our mission and service offering. This is because we want to concentrate on uncovering the improbable high impact events (aka Black Swans), which have become notoriously frequent during the past few years. As we hold an exceptional forecasting record in predicting them, we are confident that this is the way to provide unmatched benefits to our customers. In this week’s forecasts, we uncover the major risks, Black Swan events, lurking behind the facade of the approaching U.S. Presidential elections.
Forecasts:
We call the 60th quadrennial Presidential election for President Trump.
Yet, we issue a Black Swan warning considering the elections, because there’s a way to falsify the election results.
Constitutional crisis leading into financial crash and a civil war is the biggest possible Black Swan -event of the elections.
It looks like a Trump-landslide
The odds of President Trump winning, at the Polymarket, are high even though they have declined somewhat recently. Jim Bianco has published an excellent thread in X on the betting markets of U.S. elections. He notes that victory of President Trump is trading in all markets >50% and has been in an uptrend for weeks. Essentially “All the betting markets are consistent with each other with heavy volume”. This greatly diminishes the likelihood of a manipulation.
The U.S. has an Electoral College voting system. Election process is aimed at selecting the electors, who vote for President and Vice President, and count the electoral votes by Congress. You can find a more detailed description of the process here.
Electoral College system is the reason, why there are swing or ‘battleground’ states, who effectively determine the outcome of the election. Some states have been deemed “Blue” (majority of the vote going to Democrats) and “Red” (majority of the vote going to Republicans) based on their historical voting record. Swing states “swing” meaning that they can go either way. Because States have a differing amount of electors, which is not strictly related to the population of the State, a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the popular vote. This occurred, e.g., in the 2016 elections.
The following are considered as the battleground States/Districts in the upcoming elections: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska voting district 2, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. President Trump is currently being forecasted to win majority of them.
Election Time, who correctly anticipated the victory of President Biden in 2020, is forecasting (October 27) that President Trump will win by 306 to 232 electorates (their Youtube).1 We have actually been unable to find any forecasts that would anticipate the victory of VP Harris. We also need to remember that polls missed the ‘Trump-wave’ fully in 2016 and also partially in 2020. Most importantly, a very large share of Americans think that the U.S. is on the wrong track, like before the 2016 elections. Because VP Harris offers just continuation of the policies of President Biden, we consider this to be a decisive factor in the minds of Americans.
We thus are calling the 60th quadrennial Presidential election for President Trump. Yet, the possibility of an election fraud exists.
They may have done it before, so why not repeat it?
We received some criticism, when we published this warning on November 16, 2020.
Since U.S. election day on November 3rd, we have been receiving data and information from American sources regarding statistical anomalies about voting in key battleground states.
Statistical anomalies include VIce-President Joe Biden receiving 100% of votes—especially late-arrival postal ballots—in several counties in decisive States. From a statistical point of view, there might be a few such occasions spread across the entirety of the U.S., but the fact that, according to the information we have received, such events have been concentrated on the battleground states is unlikely to the point of statistical impossibility.
This is why we are announcing an exceptional warning about the possibility of wide-spread voter fraud favoring V.P. Biden. We are not saying that this has happened, but based on the evidence we've seen, we must acknowledge the possibility of it.
The evidence we have seen is actually so compelling that even if, for some reason, courts do not act upon it, it may still convince a great number of supporters of President Trump that real voter-fraud has taken place. This greatly increases the likelihood of serious division and even armed violence along the deep political fault lines in the U.S.
Most of the criticism we received was retracted after the events of January 6, 2021. We continue to stand behind this analysis, which was based on several witness accounts and statistical anomalies. The key factor behind our warning was a very strange jump in the votes received by President Biden at the end election day. The late arrival of postal ballots was offered as an explanation for this anomaly. The problem with this explanation was that such statistical anomalies were concentrated on the five key battleground states, which all went to President Biden. This was a statistical impossibility.
Unfortunately, our Finnish-born associate, who lived the U.S. and who submitted us most of the statistical evidence, died (in non-suspicious circumstances) about a year ago. The original data was in his computer, and we have been unable to get access to it. This is the reason why we cannot reproduce them here (we should have stored the data to our own serve; our bad). Yet, we have to emphasize that the warning was published only after a rigorous checking and double-checking of the data. Our CEO Tuomas made the final call.
The reason why we suspect something similar could occur this time around is that we consider VP Harris to be the candidate of the elite. She has no successful political nor business career, which would support her candidacy to the highest office in the U.S. She has, and is, actively pushing for the agendas of the global elite, including climate change, normalizing LQTB ideology and transgender “treatments”. She also unequivocally supports growing the role of government. Most revealingly, there is a considerable bias in support of VP Harris in the U.S. mainstream media and also in, e.g., searches through Google and Youtube. Because this is systematic, it implies that a powerful background force, i.e. the U.S. elite, pushing for her victory.
To note, the celebrity endorsements, for VP Harris, have also been overwhelming. Many of them have felt forced. The conspiracy theory relating to them is that most of celebrities actively endorsing Kamala Harris are mentioned in either the Jeffrey Epstein or P. Diddy lists.2
The likely source of election fraud would be the electronic voting system of the U.S. Finnish cybersecurity expert Harri Hursti has shown multiple times that the electronic voting systems can be hacked without a trace. He is by far the leading authority in voting security. He recently hacked an older voting machine in a live podcast. According to Hursti, all the electronic voting machines ever tested have been hacked, i.e., that the hacking record of electronic voting machines is 100%. His main message is: “Never trust, always verify”. To note, he does not think that the 2020 elections was fraudulent.
Hursti’s argument against a large-scale election fraud is the sheer size of hacking required. Essentially, the decentralized nature of U.S. elections, where each state and even county uses different voting systems and election protocols, provides protection against this. What Hursti and many other cybersecurity experts fail to acknowledge is that the U.S. elite and the ‘Deep State’, most likely, are behind VP Harris and they have the resources to pull of a fraud of that scale. Also, like noted by former U.S. President Woodrow Wilson:
Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.
The above implies that A) a very powerful group is likely to exist in the U.S. that has the resources to falsify the elections, and B) they aim to get VP Harris elected.
Alas, our first Black Swan warning concerning the U.S. President elections is that President Donald John Trump receives more votes, in actuality, but the voting system is rigged to show a victory for Vice President Kamala Devi Harris.
We do not give any actual likelihood of this occurring (we simply do not have enough information to present such an assessment). We only warn that the likelihood of such an event is above zero. In other words, we warn that there’s a positive likelihood that the coming elections are fraudulent.3 This would be likely to have some serious repercussions.4
The likelihood of a social unrest and financial collapse
The main question is how will the opposing side take the result, as one will definitely loose. The division among American populace has probably not been bigger since the Civil War. This became morbidly visible in the two failed assassination attempts of President Trump. The obvious failures and misconducts of the Secret Service in the former and implications of the latter were quickly silenced (essentially bypassed) by the U.S. mainstream media. The handling of these two incidents look more like a media coverup than a coverage. A range of conspiracy theories advocating for Trump campaign staging both attempts have also been floated. But our main worry is the seeming acceptance of such actions to stop “Trump”. Such a repulsive thinking has been build gradually over the years, but especially during the past few weeks.
President Trump has been labelled as a fascist and the most dangerous person in the country. He has even been associated to Adolf Hitler. This is exactly the language that creates political violence. We are thus far more worried about the social unrest in the (likely) case of a Trump victory than in a Harris victory.
Yet, if VP Harris does happen to win, and clear proof of electoral fraud emerges, the U.S. could enter an actual civil war. Allegations of a voter fraud, supported by strong evidence, could lead to a cessation of the Federation. This could occur if the establishment, especially the U.S. Supreme Court, would throw out the evidence of a voter fraud. After such a ‘coup’, the Red States, headed likely by Texas, could severe ties with the federal government. If the White House would side to defend the unity of the Federation with armed forces, a civil war would be likely to erupt. This is, by far, the direst Black Swan event we can think of considering the November 5 elections. We consider the likelihood of this to be rather low.
Any major disruption with the elections also has the potential to unleash a constitutional crisis and a civil war. This would have some serious financial repercussion. Dollar could skyrocket alongside Treasury yields. These would be likely to start a banking crisis and create a wave of sovereign defaults across the globe. A martial law could be instituted in the U.S. to “calm” the panic. This would lead to many adverse scenarios, including a civil war.
Our second Black Swan warning considering the elections is a co-ordinated effort to hijack the elections through massive disruptions in vote counting causing a constitutional crisis, unleashing a financial mayhem, martial law and eventually a civil war.
Let’s hope that elections are fair and the transition of power is smooth. We will return to these scenarios, next week, if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The information contained herein is current as at the date of this entry. The information presented here is considered reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Changes may occur in the circumstances after the date of this entry and the information contained in this post may not hold true in the future.
No information contained in this entry should be construed as an investment advice nor advice on the safety of banks. GnS Economics nor any of the authors cannot be held responsible for errors or omissions in the data presented. Readers should always consult their own personal financial or investment before making any investment decision or decision on banks they hold their money in. Readers using this post do so solely at their own risk.
Readers must make an independent assessment of the risks involved and of the legal, tax, business, financial or other consequences of their actions. GnS Economics nor any of the authors cannot be held i) responsible for any decision taken, act or omission; or ii) liable for damages caused by such measures.
See also, e.g., forecast of AtlasIntel.
Late Jeffrey Epstein, an American financier and a sex offender, became known of holding parties and services offering under-aged women (and possibly men) to celebrities. His “list” allegedly names celebrities and politicians engaged in unlawful activities either on his island in the Caribbeans or in his mansion in the Palm Beach. Some claim that especially his island was used by an international child-trafficking ring. He died in suspicious circumstances on August 10, 2019, while in a maximum security prison.
Musician P. Diddy (born Sean Combs) has been charged with sex trafficking, racketeering and transportation to engage in prostitution. He has allegedly held major celebrity orgies, from where large quantities of video material are said to exist, which show many celebrities engaging in dubious/unlawful activities.
There are already reports of the machines either not allowing a voter to select one Trump/Vance or giving a erroneous vote to Harris/Walz. In July, in Georgia both Republican and Democrat representatives even demanded that Georgia election board to switch from Dominion Voting Systems’ machines to hand-marked paper ballots. Serious issues have also already been raised concerning the integrity of the Dominion electronic voting system. A damning report on audit of the the Dominion Voting System states that system was “designed to create systemic fraud”. A major possible voter fraud was recently unveiled in Pennsylvania. There are a lot of such reports already and notably these glitches and errors always seem to favor the Democrats.
To note, other options to bypass the vote of the U.S. populace also exist, including invoking the 20th Amendment through, e.g., crashing the electronic voting system. This would lead to a situation, where there would be not President elect in the inauguration day (January 20), which would lead the Congress appointing one.