Weekly Forecasts 6/2024

First estimates on the timing of the Peak Escalation

Forecasts:

1. The collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) looms.

2. Did Iran test a nuclear weapon?

3. The risk of a serious (existential) escalation grows in Europe. We will provide likelihoods for the timing of the Peak Escalation.

The collapse of the AFU looms

Since the Kursk incursion, Russian forces have started to advance rapidly in several fronts in eastern Ukraine. Currently Russian forces are advancing in Ugledar, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk directions. Other possible points of breach include Kupyansk-Seversk and Zaporozhye. The Washington Post calculated that Russian Armed Forces have gained some 820 square kilometers of new Ukrainian territory in August and September. This was facilitated to improved Russian tactics, improved communications for coordination, and the AFU’s attack on the Kursk region draining limited resources from other fronts.

In his recent interview, the former Ukrainian presidential office advisor Oleksiy Arestovych estimated that the complete collapse of the AFU is three to four months away (note that we cannot verify the translation). According to him, the main reason for this is the lack of a reserve of motivated infantry. While some parts of his statement can be attributed to a political play, the rapidly advancing Russian troops support his scenario.

The reason why we are raising this issue is, because the looming collapse of the AFU plays a crucial role in the Peak Escalation -scenario. In Weekly Forecasts 2/2024, we noted that:

Options are running thin for President Zelenskyi and the factions in NATO supporting Ukrainian war-efforts. Essentially, they are left with just two:

1. To escalate in an extremely desperate manner by striking to Moscow, etc., or by conducting a nuclear false flag attack in Ukraine or somewhere in Europe blaming Russia.

2. Truce and peace, on Russia’s terms.

The biggest risk, and fear, is that NATO will see its looming loss in Ukraine as an existential threat. This is not so far-fetched as it may sound, at first. NATO basically equipped two Ukrainian armies, where Ukrainian men operated NATO gear under, at least partial NATO battle-field command. Russian artillery and air-power superiority and tank-drone advantage essentially destroyed both armies.

Often times, the unity of an alliance is determined by the benefits it can yield to its members. Now, some members (e.g., Hungary and Slovakia) are rebelling openly against the NATO leadership. NATO losing in Ukraine could push it to a path of disintegration. To avert this, NATO may seek a “peak escalation”.

Does Iran have a nuke?