Weekly Forecasts 3/2024

China growth conundrum and peak escalation

Forecasts:

1. Beijing has enacted another round of de-leveraging of the Chinese economy, which we expect to deepen.

2. The world economy heads into a recession.

3. The ‘peak escalation’, we warned about in mid-August, is likely to be upon us.

We also update our preparation guidelines below. Tuomas will write more on the peak escalation in his newsletter later this week. As usual, his piece will be provided to our paid subscribers here.

China de-levers