Deprcon Warning
Peak escalation
The retaliatory attack of Iran to Israel has yet to occur, but preparations for it are ongoing. The attack of Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) into Russia in the Kursk region was a move which can only be classified as a dangerous escalation.
We warned on the possibility of a deepening escalation, in both regions, in June. Now, we issue a warning of a ‘peak escalation’, and provide guidelines for preparation.
The warning
Every single contact we have in the Middle East currently says the same: Iran will attack. The time that goes by without an attack can be considered worrisome, because it suggests Iran is preparing for an actual war, which can commence with a devastating attack to Israel. The Biden Administration keeps on issuing threats, while Iran keeps repelling them. Such public quarrel suggest that backroom talks for de-escalation are not going well.
The recent massive cyberattack to Iran is unlikely to ease tensions. It may be a show of force, a warning, from the Israeli-U.S. axis and a last effort to persuade Iranian leadership to ‘stand down’. While we consider the cyberattack to possibly postpone the strike, we also consider it unlikely that it would scare Iran from taking action. It may even grow their resolve. The Gaza truce negotiations, which have just started in Doha, play a role too. If a truce is reached, Iran may reconsider.
The surprise attack of the AFU into the Kursk region is likely to be the ‘last-hurrah’ attack of Ukraine, speculated to occur during this summer. Credible reports suggest strong presence of NATO personnel in preparation and leadership, while mercenaries from NATO countries have been reportedly taken a part in the fighting. While some may consider such an attack on Russia justified, it basically can serve only one aim: escalation.
Russia is rotating some groups from the east-Ukraine to stave off the AFU progress in Kursk, which may open some new venues for the AFU in the east. However, because the AFU is facing serious deficiencies in manpower and weapons, any possible successes will, most likely, be temporary. The progress of Russian forces in the east-Ukraine also seems to continue unabated. Yet, the Kursk incursion, if it lasts, may motivate western powers to send more weapons to Ukraine prolonging the war.
In June, we warned on two possible developments in Ukraine:
One-final push in Ukraine to support the Presidential election campaign of the Democrats.
A major false-flag operation in Ukraine/Europe blaming Russia.
Now, the first of these has become a reality. President Putin has already stated that there will be no further discussions with Kiev. The Kursk attack will definitely push all hopes for a peace back for an extended period of time, or in the worst-case bury them altogether. If so, Russia will simply grind Ukraine to the ground and take what she wishes.
A lot now depends on the response of Kremlin. Some very worrying calls of “turning Kiev into rubble” have reportedly been made. Yet, we consider that the incursion of the AFU to Kursk will not be enough to persuade Kremlin to response disproportionately, such as turning parts of Kiev into a “parking lot”.
We are certain President Putin knows the risk of such a move and that Ukrainian leadership is, most likely, trying to pull NATO directly into the conflict. Yet, a strong response is most likely coming from Kremlin, which severity will eventually be determined by the actions of Ukraine/NATO in and around Kursk. However, things would change drastically, if there would be a major attack, e.g., to Moscow. In any case, another cycle of escalation has started.
What worries us the most is the possibility of a ‘false flag’ attack conducted by Ukraine/NATO. While we do not consider the likelihood of such an atrocity to be very high at the moment, it’s definitely above zero. This is, because it seems that peace in Ukraine is not part of the plan of NATO and Ukrainian leadership, or their ‘overlords’. A major false flag attack would be orchestrated to establish a consensus within NATO and among the European populace that we need to go into a war against Russia.
Like noted by Tuomas on Saturday, the options of Ukraine/NATO are gravely limited. They can either agree to peace on Russia’s terms (which at this point implies a complete surrender of the AFU), escalate massively (e.g., strike to Moscow) in a hope that a possible disproportionate response from Kremlin would draw NATO countries directly into the battle (which is not guaranteed), or conduct a major false flag attack in Ukraine/Europe blaming Russia to establish the same. Tuomas has pondered this more in his latest.
Tuomas has also been speculating, for some time, on the force that could be behind (driving) this relentless global cycle of escalation. If a powerful-enough force (group) pushing for it exists, it would suggest that the cycle of escalation in Ukraine and the Middle-East will continue regardless of what happens in Kursk and between Iran and Israel now.
Like Tuomas noted in his recent piece, we have entered what is likely to be the most precarious era the world has seen for quite some time. Alas, we warn on the possibility of cataclysmic events, a peak escalation, in the coming months aimed at pushing the world into a global conflict.