Weekly Forecasts 15/2025
Forecasting the bank lending in China
Forecasts:
Updates on economic indices for China.
Recent developments in bank lending in China.
Forecasts for bank lending in China.
Some updates on economic indices of China
The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.2 in March. This recovery was as expected based on the strong stimulus push Beijing unleashed at the start of the year.
The NBS manufacturing PMI also rose in March. And so did the PMI of the service sector.
So, every PMI indicator above indicates improved economic momentum for China. The improvement is no surprise after the record stimulus unleashed by Beijing in January. However, the volatility of these measures makes them unsuitable for forecasting, except for the short-term (1-2 month) outlook. Bank lending is the lifeblood of economies, and especially so in China. This is why, next, we launch a section providing forecasts for bank lending in China.
Lending in China
In this new section, we follow and forecast the developments in bank lending in China. At the end of 2023, Chinese banks accounted for over 90% of total assets in the financial sector. They thus accounted for most of the lending to the overall economy. Therefore, when assessing the future path of the Chinese economy, it’s crucial to understand where lending of Chinese banks is heading. In this new monthly/bi-monthly section (depending on other occurrences in the world), we seek to map the path ahead for Chinese bank lending. Our analysis is divided into two sections. The first one analyzes the most up-to-date developments in the banking sector/lending, and the latter provides forecasts for domestic and foreign-currency-denominated bank lending for the next 12 months.
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