Weekly Forecasts 10/2024

Into the world of Trump II

Forecasts:

1. Donald John Trumps becomes the 47th U.S. President.

2. A first look at his likely policies, and their implications. (Paywalled)

3. The risk of a peak escalation in the Middle East is likely to grow under Trump presidency. (Paywalled)

Victory for Donald J. Trump

President Donald Trump clinched a re-assuring victory in the 60th quadrennial Presidential election, like we forecasted on Friday. He is set to become the 47th President of the United States.

Fortunately, while certain misconducts did arise, it appears that a large-scale voter fraud did not occur. Yet, something was definitely going on. For example, in a key swing state Pennsylvania, strange voting machine breakdowns were reported, alongside illegal voting practices stopped by President Trump’s legal teams on the ground. Also, before the elections, especially billionaire Elon Musk raised the issue that Democrats would be trying to “hijack” the elections by letting the illegal immigrants, who had been flooding over the southern border, to vote. While non-citizens cannot vote in federal elections, 15 U.S. states do not require voter identification, which effectively enables voter fraud through voting of non-citizens. Based on all the information we have received, if this occurred, it did not alter the results of the elections. Thus, most fortunately, the first Black Swan, i.e., large-scale voter fraud we warned about did not materialize.

Vice President Kamala Harris conceded on Wednesday and accepted the results of the elections. It thus looks that the second Black Swan (social unrest) is unlikely to materialize before the inauguration of President Trump on January 20 (yet, we do not consider the likelihood of such an occurrence to be zero).

However, risks towards President Trump and Vice President elect James David Vance have heightened. For example, a swathe of social media accounts have either directly or indirectly speculated on killing President Trump, and VP-elect Vance, before the inauguration. We hope that U.S. authorities enact proper measures to shield them. While we seem to be heading into a smooth transition of power in the U.S., which would be exactly what the world would need, chaos lurks behind the surface.

Our Black Swan warning considering the period before the inauguration is that there will be third attempt on the life of President Trump, possibly supported by ‘Deep State’ actors behind current leadership of the Democratic party. This would lead to a serious constitutional crisis in the U.S., and most likely to a civil war.

At this point, we do not consider this likely, but this, again, is a possibility we have to acknowledge.

To note, President Trump has already selected his first cabinet member. The senior campaign adviser, and a grandmother, Susie Wiles will serve as the Chief of Staff. Mrs. Wiley has been credited of being able to navigate the whims and mercurial personality of President Trump during his Presidential campaign. We are certain that she will bring much needed professionalism and stability to the second Trump administration, which were sometimes lacking in his first administration.

We will speculate and comment the nominated and possible cabinet members more in the November Black Swan Outlook. Now, we take a first peek on the likely policies of Trump II concentrating from the geopolitical angle.

Prosperity through peace

It’s our (preliminary) assessment that President Trump will continue where he left off in his first term. Thus, his geopolitical strategy is likely to have two pillars: