[Update] Towards Chaos

In the dark

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

First, a word of warning. I have probably never written an analysis on which I am so unsure. This is due to the extreme 'fog of war' making it hard to know what's happening. First, there were reports that internet in Iran would be down. This turned out not to be the case. Now, a near-complete media and internet blackout seems to be in place in Israel at the time of writing.

What we know is that Iran retaliated during the night with missiles, and Israel enacted another set of aerial bombardments. The fog of war is as thick as it can be, so I don’t make any statements on the casualty figures. I only note that Israel does not report military casualties, which are likely to be high. Iranian figures are also likely to be watered down. This is simply how this game is played.

Yesterday night I watched the developments through BBC World, CNN International, SkyNews, and X. The controversy between many videos downloaded to X showing Iranian missiles raining over Israel and the relative calm depicted by the first three could not have been higher. The mainstream media seems to be on a “tight leash," considering what they are allowed to report. Now, due to Israel’s (likely) internet blackout, we are in the dark.

We know from multiple sources that missiles struck at or in the vicinity of Israel’s Ministry of Defense, located at the center of Tel Aviv. Some pro-Iranian and (allegedly) independent accounts have claimed that most of the buildings of the ministry above ground would have been destroyed. If so, casualties are likely to be high. We also know that the Natanz nuclear facility was hit in Iran, like we warned on Thursday, while reports suggest that the Fordow nuclear facility would have been spared, for now at least. Reports also suggest that Israel’s nuclear facility at Dimona would have received a hit. In general, several hits were reported in around Israel and Iran. However, most notably, critical Iranian oil facilities, like Kharg Island, were not targeted. This gets us to the main point, I want to talk with you today.

Yesterday I noted that

The question we have to ask is, is the regime in Tehran ready to risk

I am keen to think that they are not. In my thinking, this implies that the retaliation of Iran will be limited, depending naturally on how long the Israeli aerial campaign lasts and how damaging it becomes, and on how close Tehran is to a functional nuclear weapon. If Iran has already reached that point, strikes against Israel are likely to be devastating and occur quickly.

I would say that, for the time being at least, my forecast on the Iranian response has been correct. The Iranian strikes overnight were limited in scope. We, of course, don’t know what the situation is now. Last night, rumors also surfaced about a potential nuclear test by Iran. So far I have not seen any clear hints on this (while an earthquake was reported in the Gulf region).

My yesterday’s analysis had one serious caveat. I understood it when I read a good piece by Scott Ritter in the morning. In it he was rather gloomy, ending his analysis by noting that

And the foundation of this peace deal must be the normalization of Iran’s nuclear program within the framework of the NPT [nuclear nonproliferation treaty].

Is such an outcome possible?

Yes.

But it will require the near destruction of Israel by Iran.

True Promise 3, the long awaited Iranian ballistic missile assault against Israel, has been threatened by Iran for many months now.

Iran must now execute this operation with perfection and decisiveness if it wants to survive.

While I agree with Scott that the conflict is really close to becoming existential for both regimes, I don’t fully share his view. He misses the three leverage points of Iran: China, Russia, and the Strait of Hormuz. The latter, for example, can be used to annihilate the world economy.