Reports and rumors are circulating about imminent Israeli strikes into Iran. Iran has also allegedly obtained highly classified information on Israel’s nuclear weapons program, but also possibly on the Western “shadow operations” in the Middle East. The strikes are also now speculated on Israeli TV channels. We issue a warning concerning the Middle East.
Reports are, in a highly conflicting manner, indicating that either a rift would have emerged between the Israeli government and the Trump Administration or that President Trump would have greenlighted the strikes to Iran. Which, if either of them holds, will be revealed to us only after the fact.
According to the earlier reports, Israel would be planning to strike nuclear production facilities in, at least, Fordow (near Qom) and Natanz (some 300 km south of Tehran). The latter is reportedly so deep underground that even the ordinary bunker-buster bombs cannot reach it. This makes it possible that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would use tactical nuclear weapons to strike the facility.
Hans-Benjamin Braun (PhD in Theoretical Physics) has argued that the IDF tested a tactical nuclear bunker buster bomb in Tartus, Syria, on December 15. This could have been a preparation for a strike on the Natanz nuclear facility. The repercussions of such an action would be dire. Iran would probably strike back with everything she has and target the Israeli nuclear facilities. In the worst-case, while still a rather unlikely scenario, this could start a nuclear war in the Middle East, which would involve Russia and the U.S.
On April 11, 2024, Tuomas published a worst-case scenario for the Iran-Israel war. While we consider it unlikely that the strikes of Israel would lead to full-scale war in the region, it’s naturally possible. If the strikes occur, Iran will retaliate; however, the nature of its retaliation will depend on both the success of those strikes and whether tactical nukes are involved.
Assessing the likelihood of Israeli strikes is impossible at this point, but we need to consider it to be elevated. That is why we issue a warning on the possibility of (imminent) Israeli strikes to Iran leading to serious consequences in the region and in the global economy.
If the strikes come to be, we will analyze the consequences in more detail. Yet, we urge you to be prepared for surging oil, natural gas, and gold prices Israel/U.S. decide to strike Iran.
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