Towards Chaos

Israel strikes Iran

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

So, like we at GnS Economics warned on (early) Thursday, Israel launched a full-scale air-bombing campaign against military and nuclear targets in Iran. There are also reports of strikes on civilian structures, such as residential buildings and roadside facilities. It has been reported that over 200 fighter jets would have participated in the operation. Early reports also indicate that some of the strikes would have applied AI technology, like what we have seen in Ukraine.

During Israel’s first strikes in October 2024, many pro-Iranian analysts and accounts claimed the superiority of Iranian air defenses in repelling the attack. There is no such deterrence visible now. On the other hand, many pro-Israeli accounts and analysts declared the impenetrability of the Iron Dome air defense system over Israel. However, numerous Iranian missiles effortlessly penetrated it in October 2024, substantiating Iran's possession of hypersonic weapons. The conclusion we need to draw from these (and from Ukraine and Russia) is that there does not exist an efficient air defense system anywhere against the modern AI-operated drones and hypersonic missiles.

In any case, we, most unfortunately, seem to be slowly moving through my worst-case scenario, published in the Twilight in the Middle East on April 18, 2024. Please note that we are not proceeding in a chronological manner:

1. Iran strikes Israel with missiles. (Check)

2. Israel and the U.S. retaliate, striking several cities and military installations in Iran. (Check)

3. Iran strikes Israel, again, and hits several U.S. military bases in the region, while Houthis/Iran launch an assault on the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea, inflicting heavy losses.

4. Iran enables its nuclear weapon program with the aim of manufacturing six nuclear weapons in a month. (Most likely Check)

5. China, Russia, and dozens of countries across the globe call for restraint, but they fall on deaf ears. (Ongoing).

6. The U.S. launches a major bombing campaign of Iran with B-52 and B-2 strategic bombers, while the U.S., Israel, and allies attempt to destroy the nuclear weapon facilities of Iran; retaliatory strikes engulf the region. (Partly ongoing.)

7. Russia steps in, destroying U.S. assets in the region using hypersonic missiles.

8. Israel nukes Iran after suffering devastating losses from continuing Iranian missile strikes, and Iran retaliates with a nuclear strike.

9. Russia or the U.S. launches a nuclear strike, with the other party responding.

10. Nuclear war erupts.

We have taken the next step in the ladders of escalation, as predicted by our Peak Escalation hypothesis, and like I speculated we would in August. We also have to remember that President Trump warned Tehran of bombings “they have never seen” if they fail to agree on the Iranian nuclear program. We are now likely to be in the beginning of this process, noting that there is evidence that Iran would have tested a nuke (possible multiple times), about which possibility we warned in early October. Yet, while everybody, and their uncle, is currently engaged in predicting imminent doom and gore, I will offer something of an alternative view.