Yesterday evening, when I was writing the Deprcon Warning for an impending war, I was really divided in my thinking. The onset of a war looked obvious, but I also continued to hope that President Trump would discover a way out. Now, we of course know he did not.
The conflict began in the worst possible yet expected manner. Satellite images indicate that Israel and the U.S. tried to assassinate Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, by hitting his center at Beyt Rahbar in Tehran alongside several other leaders. President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu got personal from the get-go. The effect of such a strike on Iran’s response is likely to be minimal, but the effect on upcoming truce (and peace) negotiations is likely to be large.
Iran, conversely, is retaliating with vigor. Reports indicate that they have destroyed the early warning radar in Qatar and hit several U.S. bases in the region (I’ve seen videos of maybe a dozen direct hits). The aim of hitting radars is naturally to clear the way for their modern missiles to unleash havoc upon Israel and U.S. assets. We have probably seen only a fraction of Iranian capabilities, and the naval battle has not even started yet. Iranian society also looks to push back hard against any coup attempts.
This appears to be it, the “final war” that Israel and Iran have been preparing for over the past 50 years. As I was writing this, I received news that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz within the next few hours. This would, most likely, create something of an epic oil price shock for next week.
I won’t write more today, because there’s too much confusion (and I have a date night :)). I updated the worst-case scenario based on comments I received to my first version.
I just want you to understand how bad this can get. Iran looks to be serious this time, and President Trump may have been lured into a deadly trap, like I warned two weeks ago.
Godspeed (for us all),
Tuomas
Double paragraph removed on 3/2/2026.
Disclaimer:
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No information contained in this entry should be construed as investment advice nor advice on the safety of banks. Neither GnS Economics nor any of the authors can be held responsible for errors or omissions in the data presented. Readers should always consult their own personal financial or investment advisor before making any investment decision or decision on banks they hold their money in. Readers using this post do so solely at their own risk.
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