The risk of a war erupting between Iran and the U.S.-Israel axis has become heightened up to a point that warrants a warning. While unlikely, we urge you to prepare yourself for the worst-case scenario Tuomas just updated.
We revert you to the Weekly Forecasts Special Issue disclosing the major forces likely affecting President Trump. It is also possible that the government of Israel is blackmailing him by threatening to use nuclear weapons against Iran if the U.S. does not “oblige.” These create a heightened risk for the onset of the war, which we have warned to be a major error in judgment.
Currently it looks like the demands of President Trump’s administration and the leadership of Iran in the negotiations are so far apart that kinetic (military) action seems almost unavoidable. We still consider that President Trump is looking for a way out (averting military confrontation), but the path to there looks rather complicated (almost insurmountable) at this point.
Iranian leadership seems confident, suggesting implicit support from China and Russia, as well as trust in its ability to endure initial Israeli-U.S. strikes with its striking capabilities (mostly) intact. We consider that, if the war commences, the pivotal point will arrive early. If the U.S. and Israel are unable to eradicate most of Iran’s missile-launching capabilities during the first waves, the onslaught Iran will be able to unleash on Israel and U.S. forces is likely to be overwhelming. At such a point, the U.S. would probably need to activate its strategic bombers to a full bombing campaign, which would, most likely, lead Iran to attack U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford) operating in the region. As they sail under a de facto nuclear shield, the risk of a nuclear conflict would increase notably if this point were to be reached.
We also want to issue warnings about a potential false attack by Israel on U.S. assets in the region to initiate the war, as well as the possibility that Israeli leadership has aimed to resort to nuclear weapons since the 12-day war. The latter is because the war in June is likely to have shown the Israeli government that it can obtain victory only through nuclear weapons usage (which would be a pyrrhic victory, to say the least).
These warnings are in effect for the time being.
Paywall removed on 3/4/2026.
Disclaimer:
The information contained herein is current as of the date of this entry. The information presented here is considered reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Changes may occur in the circumstances after the date of this entry, and the information contained in this post may not hold true in the future.
No information contained in this entry should be construed as investment advice nor advice on the safety of banks. GnS Economics nor Tuomas Malinen cannot be held responsible for errors or omissions in the data presented. Readers should always consult their own personal financial or investment advisor before making any investment decision or decision on banks they hold their money in. Readers using this post do so solely at their own risk.
Readers must assess the risks and legal, tax, business, financial, or other consequences of their actions. GnS Economics and Tuomas Malinen cannot be held i) responsible for any decision taken, act, or omission or ii) liable for damages caused by such measures.