Rapprochement

Reconciling the geopolitical and conspiratorial theories concerning the war against Iran

Let me end this week by making an effort to reconcile the geopolitical and conspiratorial theories concerning the war against Iran.

I know some of you have doubts about the whole conspiratorial theory, and I get you. It took me a long time to reach the conclusion presented in the Horsemen of the Apocalypse, and I cannot provide you with anything other than circumstantial evidence. However, that does not mean that the group-over-groups, or GoG, or “global shadow government” would not exist. I would argue that everything we have seen in recent years suggests otherwise, i.e., that something like it would exist.

I will not try to provide you with any more evidence here, but concentrate on implications if such a force exists for the conflict in the Middle East. Essentially, this will be an effort to combine the geopolitical and conspiratorial aspects I and GnS Economics have recently proposed.

Yesterday, we made an important geopolitical notion relating to this in the Weekly Forecasts, which acts as a starting point for my analysis here.

When we look at the flip side, that is, the aims of Israel, a conflicting aim appears. Tuomas has identified the aim of the government of Netanyahu to concentrate on the idea of “Greater Israel”, an interpretation of a biblical prophecy of Israel controlling vast parts of the Middle East. Especially Francesca Albanese, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian regions, has been sounding alarms on Greater Israel being behind the drive of the Zionist-controlled government of Israel for years. We can consider her to probably have the best insight on the aims of the Netanyahu government.

However, Israel is not a battle-hardened society like Iran. Its economy is unlikely to withstand major shocks, while most of the populace have dual citizenship (technically, Israel is a colony). These imply that if Iran seriously damages Israel, a vast share of its population will simply leave.

Like I noted in Spiritus Immundi, it is likely that the GoG wants Israel to continue standing. From the Play of the IRGC,

The fact is that for Iran to feel secure, they need to push the U.S. as far from Iran as possible (preferably out from the Middle East, but this is a tall order). They also need to put Israel into something of a leash. It is very unlikely that Iran could achieve these through diplomatic efforts. Hence, more war is needed.

If we make the assumption that the GoG has a non-existent or minimal grip on the IRGC (Islamist Revolutionary Guard Corps), we have reached a dilemma. The IRGC wants Israel to be put on a leash (or gone), while the GoG and the whole political apparatus of the U.S. want Israel to stay (and preferably be strong).

This was my previous assumption, which I will question here. Before going there, we need to add one more piece of information, or “informed speculation.”