Loan Losses and the Coming Recession

Rising non-performing loans in the U.S. banking sector

Total Delinquency Rate has been rising for the last 4 quarters. Total Delinquency include Early Stage Delinquencies which includes loans Past 30 days to 89 days but still accruing interest and Non Performing Loans(NPLs), which contains the Past 90 Day but still accruing and the Nonaccrual loan types¹ . Delinquency rate has been rising constantly for the past 6 quarters now, adding 25 basis point during this period. While this may not seem like a lot, this surge represent 22 billions of dollars added to the Delinquent Loans in the whole U.S. banking industry.

Total delinquency rate of U.S. banks. Source: GnS Economics, FDIC

As Early Stage Delinquencies go to the NPL bucket as it hits 90 days, we mainly focus on the NPL data from now on. They provide important information on which point in the business cycle we currently reside. Our analysis indicates the onset of U.S. recession to be close.

Cycle Comparison