Deprcon Outlook II

December: Scenario Forecasts

When we decided to discontinue the Q-Review series, we also decided that we continue to publish the scenario forecasts in this newsletter. It has become something of a December tradition to present our scenario forecasts at the end of the year, and this is what we’ll do also this time around.

Currently, our scenarios range from utterly abysmal to a bit more hopeful. A truly positive short-term scenario, unfortunately, is practically impossible to envisage this time around.

At this point, we consider that the likelihood of another major Russian offensive in Ukraine is rather high. Russia has been amassing forces to the East and South-East of Ukraine and also to North (e.g., to Belarus) since October. This is a likely preparation for a major offensive possibly launched after the ground has frozen to carry tanks and Russia has trained enough conscripts to gain a clear upper-hand. The other option is that Kremlin will use them just to ‘stonify’ the borders of annexed territories. We’ll discuss these in turn below.

Russia has also not taken full-usage of its ‘energy weapon’, yet. By cutting all gas flows to Europe, Russia could hamper the ability of European countries to use their gas storages, at least to a degree.¹ It should be noted that European countries have made notable success in replacing the Russian gas flows, but questions remain whether they will be able to fill gas storages during the summer and at what cost.

Because the war in Ukraine plays such a crucial role in the world, our scenarios concentrate on that. Accordingly, they are called: All quiet on the eastern front, Into the hellfire and Peace and prosperity.