Controversy continues
Could there really be peace between Iran and the U.S. (in 60+ days)?
I guess I need to admit that I stand corrected, somewhat. On Saturday, I remarked, “I don’t believe the IRGC would accept any deal currently on the table.” Yet, we are heading towards the signing of a ‘memorandum of understanding’ (MOU) between the two respective nations on Friday. In other words, I may have been mistaken. Maybe.
The U.S., or more precisely its coalition, seems to be throwing a lot of money at it. Vice President Vance noted that Iran would get $300 billion plus $100 billion in frozen funds if it “behaves”. The leaked memorandum also indicates that Iran would have major sanction reliefs and would be able to sell its oil and gas freely again. Some Iranian accounts have already noted that Iranian tankers would have sailed past the U.S. blockade with their transponders after Sunday. As such, the situation looks like a full U.S. capitulation.
Therefore, it appears that we are moving towards the “Trump capitulation” scenario, the first of the three scenarios I published on March 31 for ending the war.
In the Trump capitulation, the U.S. simply exits the war in accordance with my March 11 hypothesis. President Trump acknowledges the massive economic costs the war is inflicting and tries to shield himself from the blistering critique from his base in the U.S. by simply retreating. He enacts some last destructive strikes to Iranian infrastructure and then retreats behind the argument that he has done everything he could to shield the U.S. from the “Iranian threat,” but now it is time to concentrate on the well-being and “economic victory” of the U.S. He may even turn on the Israeli leadership for tricking him into believing that Iran was a weak nation (”But they are great, great warriors and smart, very intelligent people”). He could also throw his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, under the bus by blaming him for a poorly planned operation leading to heavy loss of American lives. Essentially, he will try to wrap himself in the well-known “Trump Teflon”.
Before we get there (if we get there), there are some caveats.
Iran has reportedly kept on hitting ships trying to pass the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) every night since Sunday. There are also several points in the (leaked) memorandum the two sides disagree on. Larry Johnson has written on them extensively. Here, I raise two burning points and add my own “Black Swan” at the end.
Two points Larry raises that I want to discuss here are:
Immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.
The 60-day negotiation window.
