Contradiction

Daily Thoughts 20 Mar 2025

Against many other recession forecasting metrics, the leading indicators of the OECD continue to push upwards. Could there be a surprise (global recovery) on the cards?

The composite leading indicators, gathering information from a wide-variety of economic indicators from banks to consumers, for China, the Big 4 Europe (France, Germany, Italy and the U.K.), Germany and the U.S. Source: GnS Economics, OECD

When we broaden the picture, it’s not so rosy anymore. To note, we are building a forecasting model for the leading indicators. Its first results will be published in the March Black Swan Outlook.