What is wrong with the U.S. economic forecasts?

Daily Thoughts 26 Mar 2025

Yesterday, I tried Grok in forecasting the onset of U.S. recession. “His” answer was interesting, somewhat plausible, but it also reflected the general uncertainty concerning forecasting during these crazy times. An update to the Atlanta Fed Nowcast came in today, which is also what Grok cited in his analysis. This is the updated estimate for growth of U.S. Q1 gross domestic product (GDP), and it continues to be rather interesting.

The kicker is this: The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is 0.2 percent. What is going on?