What about dat recession?

Historical evidence suggest that the onset of U.S. recession is very close.

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

I and we at GnS Economics have been tracking the onset of U.S. recession for a year. In April 2024, I noted that

When we observe the (Y-o-Y) growth of loans and leases of U.S. banks, we notice that they continue to hover at recession levels. I expected to see an improvement during February and March, due to improved mood among consumers and expectations of rate cuts, but this failed to materialize almost totally as shown by the figure below. This enforces the message of loan demand, i.e., that the U.S. economy is nearing a credit recession.

Our current forecast is that the U.S. recession will commence between Q3 and Q4. This has been drawn mostly on simple deduction of the underlying undercurrents in the U.S. economy and on yield curves.

The spread of U.S. Treasury notes with 10-year and 2-year maturities and the spread of U.S. 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month Treasury bills. Source: GnS Economics, St. Louis Fed, NBER.

Next, I provide more evidence indicating that the onset of (actual) U.S. recession is very close.