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GnS Economics Newsletter
GnS Economics Newsletter
[Update] Thinking about Volodymyr Zelenskyi (and peace in Ukraine)
Daily Thoughts

[Update] Thinking about Volodymyr Zelenskyi (and peace in Ukraine)

Collapse of the AFU nears

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Tuomas Malinen
Mar 08, 2025
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GnS Economics Newsletter
GnS Economics Newsletter
[Update] Thinking about Volodymyr Zelenskyi (and peace in Ukraine)
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Please note that now, as Daily Thoughts have become a permanent part of our service offering, subscription fees have also changed.

Update 3/8/2025

Things are moving rapidly in Ukraine now. On March 1 (see below), I noted that:

I think that there are only two options for a lasting peace in Ukraine:

  1. The leadership of Ukraine is changed, one way or another, and the new leadership capitulates to (all) Russian demands.

  2. Russia pushes the Armed Forces of Ukraine into an unconditional surrender.

We are moving, in expedited fashion, towards #2, which would lead to the scenarios I envisaged in late-January (see also my recent X post). There have been four critical developments during the past two days, which are pushing the conflict towards the end-game.

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