Ukraine on my mind

Daily thoughts on 10 Feb. 2025

This is a test (beta) version of our new service for paid subscribers, where our CEO Tuomas shares his thoughts in short entries. His thoughts will be published from Monday till Friday, and sometimes also during the weekend. This test will run till the end of February, after which we decide whether to continue it based on the feedback.

I have just read another “leaked” peace plan for Ukraine. It looks to be much closer of what me and two of my anonymous colleagues envisaged in early December, but with one serious caveat.

According to the Daily Mail, Ukraine would be banned to joining NATO and Russia would be given sovereignty over the eastern provinces of Ukraine in the plan. The line of ceasefire would follow (mostly) the Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia on 30 September 2022. The “deal” would also include lifting some of the Russian sanctions. Good so far, but then the leak notes that the U.K. and European troops would monitor the line of ceasefire, and this is the issue.

The question that lingers in my mind is, why would Russia agree to allow the parties that submitted Ukraine with weaponry, and some of whose leaders have been openly aggressive towards Russia, to oversee one of the most fragile lines of ceasefire in the world? It is of course possible that President Putin could agree to such deal, but what would come out of it? It looks like a perfect setup for the NATO Deep State and the military-industrial complex to flare up the conflict again, at some point.

But, do I think that a truce could be found with terms close to these?