The Trump-end
The abysmal options faced by President Trump to end the war against Iran (Free)
I am going to start this week with some developments in the Middle East. Like you all probably know, panic at the White House is palpable. President Trump seems to have lost it completely, as he is now also blaming the reporters for “negative coverage” of the war, whatever that is.
In the matters concerning reality, the first non-Iranian oil tanker, Karachi, has safely passed the Strait. The X account of Marine Traffic reports:
The Aframax tanker Karachi, carrying Abu Dhabi’s Das crude, has become the first non-Iranian cargo to transit the chokepoint while broadcasting its AIS signal, suggesting that select shipments may be receiving negotiated safe passage.
The route of the tanker was somewhat special.
Why did they go so close to the Iranian coast? Rio de Janeiro-based geopolitical analyst Patricia Marins has a view I consider to be very plausible:
This is precisely what I, as a trained group leader (under-sergeant) of an armored engineer company (in my mandatory military service), would do. Mine the route that is closest to our positions. If you think that any coalition President Trump is building can open the Strait, I urge you to read the piece Patricia wrote for us on the eve of the onset of the war of Iran’s naval capabilities.
The problem President Trump is facing in Iran is that he got dragged into a war that can end not just the petrodollar but the U.S. global military and financial hegemony. Somewhat counter-intuitively, this is what he promised to do during his campaign. Regardless whether this is his fate or just stupidity, the options he has to escape are harrowing. I consider him to have just three:
End the war and retrieve the U.S. from the Middle East (as per demand by Tehran) and lose the petrodollar.
Start a ground campaign against Iran, most likely leading to the death of tens of thousands of U.S. troops and ending in a defeat.
Launch a nuclear attack against Iran.
I wrote these in order of “abysmality” (I am pretty sure that is not a word). That is, they are presented in the order from bad (to the U.S.) to unimaginable. Naturally, a great leader would admit his mistake and select the first. I just don’t think we are dealing with a “great leader” anymore.
The only play, outside of the three I think he has left, is a miraculous deal with China, which would include Beijing putting some true pressure on Tehran. I am just not sure how it would work in practice. The U.S. is pulling its assets from East Asia, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile-defense system and USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, alongside Marines. I expect Beijing to be nothing but pleased about this. Thus, why would they want to end it? Moreover, there’s a railway link between China and Iran, which can (and will be) used to circumvent the effects of the (smart) closure of the Strait.
At this point, I continue to hope that President Trump would have such amounts of sanity left that he could just pull out of the conflict. Maybe public pressure could force him to this. Let’s see.
Have a great start to the week,
Tuomas
P.S. I think that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is either dead or seriously wounded.
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