The Harbinger

The world after the non-nuclear hydrogen bomb test by China

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

I think that I use this Friday to expand and explain implications of the non-nuclear hydrogen bomb test China conducted on Sunday. I have made some additions to my model on the nuclear deterrence of ‘tactical’ (low-yield, low fallout) nuclear weapons based on this.

What the non-nuclear hydrogen bomb (NNHB from hence on) of China does, is that it mimicks the conditions of a nuclear explosion (outside the ground-zero) with zero radiation. Similarly as with the Oreshnik, it categorically changes the deterrence between nations, because the only response others have to it, is a nuclear strike. I haven’t modeled this through yet, but I provide my preliminary thoughts here.