The Age of Deception
On the strategic play behind the Iran-Israel conflict (Free)
I have been reading a lot on the Iran-Israel conflict over the past few days. It is an extremely fluid situation with a lot of propaganda around. I will continue to analyze the situation all through the week (Mate will handle the Weekly Forecasts this week). This means that I will publish a few shorter pieces before a more comprehensive one at the end of the week (Wed or Thu). Please note also that we have midsummer festivities in Finland between Thursday and Sunday, which means that you will receive only four posts this week :). Today I want to speculate a bit on the strategic angle behind the conflict.
There were some analysts who claimed over the weekend that the war would end quickly with the victory of either Israel or Iran. Such comments often lack the understanding that these two countries have been preparing for this conflict for close to 50 years.
I cannot say that I am an expert on the Middle East, but I have read about the history of the area quite a bit (remember that my mother is a retired lecturer of history). I have visited Jerusalem once, and I understand fully the difference between Jewish and Arab areas and ideologies. I also know that many Jews and Arabs would just like to live in peace. I am naturally not taking any sides, but I despise the genocidal actions of the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) in Gaza. But, like always, they do not affect my and our analyses and forecasts. The fact remains that they have been fighting for the same piece of land for at least 3000 years. Both sides have committed atrocities.
That said, we can now conclude that I was both right and wrong in my original assessment. On Friday, I noted
The question we have to ask is, is the regime in Tehran ready to risk a nuclear detonation on their soil?
I am keen to think that they are not. In my thinking, this implies that the retaliation of Iran will be limited, depending naturally on how long the Israeli aerial campaign lasts and how damaging it becomes, and on how close Tehran is to a functional nuclear weapon. If Iran has already reached that point, strikes against Israel are likely to be devastating and occur quickly.
Iran has struck Israel harder than I thought. Yet, we do not know how close Tehran is to a nuclear weapon, and we do not know how comprehensive the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed between Moscow and Tehran is. As an interesting side note, a Russian philosopher and a close ally of President Putin, Alexander Dugin, has (reportedly) stated that Iran would have rejected a military alliance with Russia just before the strikes. According to him, this would have happened because some influential people in Tehran were still hoping for a deal with the West. For ecample, Ali Shamkhani, an Iranian lead negotiator, stated just two weeks ago that Iran would be ready to commit to never having a nuclear weapon, to destroy all the stockpiles of enriched uranium, and to allow unmitigated access for IAEA inspectors to all of the nuclear sites in exchange for an immediate lifting of all sanctions. He is now dead. I urge you to check Jeffrey Sachs's interview on the utter failure of U.S. foreign policy in Iran nuclear negotiations and its likely ramifications.
Relating to this, I’ve read two interesting analyses on the motives of President Trump. The first one (see this and this) implies that President Trump would have set a trap, not for Iran, but for Israel to engage in a conflict it cannot win to force the restructuring of Israeli political doctrine and diminish the influence Israel holds in the U.S. political system. The other states that the hard response of Iran has forced the Pentagon to zero-sum accounting and the acknowledgement that U.S. resources are limited. If the war drags on, U.S. assets will definitely be pulled from Ukraine, but this may also set a rather strict time limit for how long President Trump can allow this conflict to go on. Let’s remember that the Indo-Pacific doctrine (Taiwan) is likely to dominate, which implies that the "plug" needs to be pulled on Israel at some point. Of the two theories, I consider the latter to be a more likely one.
Here are two videos on the strikes of Iran into Israel. What the mainstream media and the Israeli government are telling us is a lie. Of course Iran is suffering too, but do not believe the “minimal damage on Iranian strikes” argument. The first one is from Tel Aviv on Friday, and the second is from Haifa on Saturday. Grok identified both of them as being authentic.
I recently read a credible analysis that Israel and the U.S. would have just 15-20 days of munitions for the Iron Dome left. Reportedly, a general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would have said that Iran can keep striking Israel at the current pace for six months. If so, the math is simply not on Israel’s side. Moreover, all the analysis I’ve seen points to the conclusion that Iran has thus far emptied her arsenal of older (20-30 years) missiles. So, we may have seen only a fraction of the damage Tehran can inflict on Israel with modern missiles. Considering these, if the decapitation strikes aimed at the infrastructure and leadership of Iran fail, which now looks likely, what options remain for Israel?
There would be only three:
Capitulate and seek mediation from China and Russia.
Conduct a false flag operation at a U.S. base near Iran as a desperate effort to involve the U.S. directly in the conflict.
Launch a nuclear strike on Iran.
If President Trump maintains his composure and refrains from entering the war, these options would arise. I’ll explain all these in more detail in a later post.
Lastly, I need to add one more possible leverage point (ally) to Iran: Pakistan. Allegedly, Pakistan has confirmed to the Iranian authorities that it will retaliate with nuclear weapons against Israel if they strike Iran with nuclear weapons. At this point, I have no capacity to assess how credible threat this is to Israel, but I am checking around.
Personally, I just cannot help but think, whether Israel and President Trump chew more than they can swallow, or is there some surprise waiting for us behind the next turn of events? It will be an interesting, dangerous, and, unfortunately, deadly week. I want also to remind you on our summer offer.
Tuomas
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