Rolling blackouts are rolling in

Gently into the 'good night'?

Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light. - Dylan Thomas

On Thursday past week, Paris was hit with a large-scale power outage. Der Spiegel reports that 125.000 households were without power. The outage appeared as French authorities were running simulations on rolling blackouts.

I do wonder, where’s the European emergency plan of restoring our energy-independence? In many countries, like Finland, no such preparation is visible even at the national level. Several energy analysts have been stating that this crisis will last at least four years and that next winter would be even worse, because there are serious doubts whether Europe will be able to fill her gas storages.

The worst scenario, to where we seem to be heading, is that Ukraine will lay in ruins, possibly taken over, for most part, by Russia and Europe sinks into an economic abyss, driven by blackouts, de-industrialization, and banking, sovereign and currency (the breakup of the Eurozone) crises. This is a real risk, but very few seem to acknowlegde it and even fever politicians seem to be willing to do something to stop it. Is this utter incompetence or deliberate (in-)activity?

In any case, French authorities are running simulations for blackouts, which are expected to appear in January, across Europe. I worry that we will see a multitude of shocks hitting at the same time early next year. There’s a convergence of developments threatening to create a ‘perfect storm’, like I and we have been warning.

But, let’s take another look at the situation with natural gas and electricity markets to guide use, where we are heading.

Coming gas shortages and deindustrialization