We are revoking our warning from yesterday. As we noted in the original warning, the various developments that occurred across the globe could also have been separate events. Now, we have the information that they actually were.
First, the information we received on the IRGC leadership retreating to a bunker turned out to be inaccurate, or even false. We trusted a source outside Iran, which has sometimes provided accurate predictive information. This did not occur this time, and we consider that source unreliable, at least for the time being. We started to suspect the authenticity of the information late yesterday evening, as none of the Iranian accounts we follow, through which we correctly anticipated many of the developments that occurred during the 12-day war, reported anything even remotely hinting that the Iranian leadership would have retreated to bunkers.
The planes of the Russian Ministry of Defense flying over the Ural Mountains into Siberia were, most likely, heading to the training exercise of Russia’s nuclear forces. The annual training reportedly involved a launch of a nuclear-capable ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) known as “Yars” hitting the Kura test site on the Kamchatka Peninsula, a launch of a Sineva ballistic missile from nuclear submarine K-117 Bryansk in the Barents Sea, as well as Tupolev Tu-95MS and Tu-22m3 strategic bombers conducting bombing-run simulations. It has also been reported that Russia would be conducting test launches of Oreshnik IRBMs (intermediate-range ballistic missiles) starting today and lasting until the end of the month.
The cancellation of the Trump-Putin meeting also turned out to be something of a propaganda-piece. Today, both sides (+Hungary) have confirmed that preparations for it are ongoing, while the exact date has not been set.
For these reasons, we revoke our warning (for now), with a sigh of relief. :)
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Original, published on 10/23/2025
We have received pieces of information during the past three hours indicating an imminent escalation, possibly on several fronts. Based on them, we issue a global escalation warning, which is effective for the next seven days.
Just an hour ago, the White House issued a statement that there will be no immediate meeting between presidents Trump and Putin, effectively another 180 from the Trump administration without an explanation. There were also (uncorroborated) terrorist attacks on oil refineries in Romania and in Hungary.
About two hours ago, we received word that a substantial number of aircraft of the Russian Ministry of Defense would be flying over the Ural Mountains into Siberia. While it is difficult to anticipate what this activity implies, they may be evacuation flights, or else planes are being transported to Russian military bases in Siberia (or both). We have also received a credible rumor that the senior commanders of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) would have descended into bunkers (in anticipation of war).
While it is possible (maybe even likely) that these developments and rumors are separate and unlinked, they also may be linked. If so, they could indicate an immediate attack by Israel toward Iran, with the Russian planes heading to Siberia in preparation to provide logistical support to Tehran.
We thus urge you to be prepared for the possibility of an escalation in different theaters of war. If this concerns Iran, which is possible, we urge you to prepare for a spike in oil (and possibly natural gas) prices in the coming days and weeks.
Introduction updated on 10/22/2025.
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