GnS Economics Newsletter

GnS Economics Newsletter

Share this post

GnS Economics Newsletter
GnS Economics Newsletter
Recession update
Daily Thoughts

Recession update

The timing and implications for markets

Tuomas Malinen's avatar
Tuomas Malinen
Apr 24, 2025
∙ Paid
2

Share this post

GnS Economics Newsletter
GnS Economics Newsletter
Recession update
Share

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

We now have a clear un-inversion of the spread of yields of 10-year/2-year U.S. Treasury notes (the yield-curve). We are also at a zig-zagging phase with the 10-year/3-month spread, which has always preceded recessions

The spread of U.S. Treasury notes with 10-year and 2-year maturities and the spread of U.S. 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month Treasury bills. Source: GnS Economics, St. Louis Fed, NBER.

What about the timing and implications for markets?

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to GnS Economics Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Tuomas Malinen
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share