Recession update

The timing and implications for markets

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

We now have a clear un-inversion of the spread of yields of 10-year/2-year U.S. Treasury notes (the yield-curve). We are also at a zig-zagging phase with the 10-year/3-month spread, which has always preceded recessions

The spread of U.S. Treasury notes with 10-year and 2-year maturities and the spread of U.S. 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month Treasury bills. Source: GnS Economics, St. Louis Fed, NBER.

What about the timing and implications for markets?