Reality Check

What was achieved with the 12-day war?

Now it is time to update what actually happened in the ‘12-day war.’ Many reported developments were not like they originally seemed, which is only natural under heavy war propaganda and misinformation campaigns. Unsurprisingly, the path ahead also looks treacherous despite the initial success of President Trump.

Like I noted at the beginning of this week, I will take a 2–3-week break from writing and forecasting. I have not had a proper vacation for over a year (I worked through Christmas). I learned already in academia that sustaining high productivity requires holidays. During the past month I have felt the level of my analysis and forecasts slipping, resulting in some erroneous conclusions. Taking a proper break also feeds your intuition. I would not be surprised if I got few breakthroughs during my getaway. :)

But let’s take a closer look at what Iran and Israel achieved and what they did not achieve. There also seems not to be an actual agreement on the ceasefire. .