Peak escalation at work
The likelihood of an Iran-U.S. peace deal increases again (Free)
Let’s start by increasing the likelihood of a peace deal between Iran and the U.S. to 50% (we are now at a ‘coin toss’). This is because a deal that could be accepted by both sides has (possibly) emerged.
Saeed is from NUFDI (National Union for Democracy in Iran), which is a likely Zionist-created “Iranian freedom” think tank. His reaction indicates that either a deal proposal is currently on the table or that Iran and the U.S. are moving towards one.
Remember what I wrote in The Shadow War (April 13).
Therefore, I see the peak escalation and war triad hypotheses as implying two developments:
A cessation of hostilities in the Middle East before anything “irreversible” occurs.
Widening the war in Europe.
The latter arises from the fact that the ability of the U.S. to support the Ukrainian military effort has likely suffered a mortal blow.
It is honestly hard to believe the Peak Escalation and War Triad are forecasting so well, again, as they are, well, “conspiratorial” hypotheses.
Moreover, in End to the War in the Middle East?, I noted that:
I think we are relatively close to the ‘saturation point’ of the speculated global shadow government (group-over-groups, or GoG) in the Middle East.
They have destabilized the Trump administration, pushing it to what looks like a never-ending warpath, and ignited a global energy crisis, which carries the potential to unleash an economic collapse by fall and famine in many parts of the globe during next winter. The global travel system will be disrupted, and the electrification of transport will be accelerated, which some say is part of the “Agenda 2030.” The U.S. deep state has also gained the pivot towards U.S. energy, while the military-industrial complex has gained a notable increase in its production and, hence, profits for the foreseeable future.
The war in the Middle East thus looks like a major achievement for the War Triad (deep state, military-industrial complex, and the GoG). Pushing it much further, though, would risk the total collapse of the facade of U.S. military might, which would render a World War III fought against Russia + China impossible in all practical terms.
We now appear to be at this exact point. While the war can naturally start again (with a “coin toss”), we have been gradually moving towards it not doing so.
Shortly after the ceasefire, I started to ponder what the peak escalation hypothesis indicates for the war. Almost immediately it became clear that the ‘GoG’ probably does not want the war to continue for the aforementioned reasons. That revelation started to alter my thinking (reflected in the likelihoods) towards the war not continuing. I honestly did not think forecasting the path of war would be so simple, but at least now it looks like it was.
Remember also what I wrote before the start of the war, on February 18, in The Satanic Elite:
You need a similar, or even a bigger, shock to bury all allegations and investigations on the “satanic” practices unveiled by the Epstein files. One shock will probably not be enough.
We surely got one (shock), and there’s likely to be many more to come.
Like I have noted several times, peak escalation and war triad hypotheses are probably the most accurate non-statistical forecasting tools I’ve ever envisaged. As they imply, we are moving towards #2 (see above) at a rapid pace in Europe. I will write more about that tomorrow.
Tuomas
P.s. I know I promised to provide you with the composition of our virtual (practice) portfolio, but we have been adjusting it (and my partner-to-be is very busy). So, it will drag on. Sorry.
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