Into the End of (Economic) Days?

Keynote at the MOL Group Leadership Summit

From Tuomas Malinen’s Forecasting Newsletter.

Issues contributed:

• U.S. recession is edging closer.

• Engines of the world economy are about to ‘stall’ or even collapse at the same time.

• The last time we saw this to happen, the world entered the Great Depression.

On Wednesday I gave a keynote at MOL Group Leadership Summit in Esztergom, Hungary. The title of the presentation was the same as the title of this entry, which naturally has a sense of drama (and showmanship) build into it. In the presentation, I outlined the main points, why the world economy is heading into some really deep waters.

While we have dived deep into the fracture lines in economies and financial system in my newsletter, it’s always good to remind oneself on the ‘big picture’. That’s why I thought it would serve my subscribers, and those of the GnS Economics Newsletter, well to present the main points and narrative of the presentation here. There is also a lot of “noise” surrounding the approaching global recession, which needs to be cleared out. Presentations (naturally) have a limited time, which is why all aspects cannot be covered in it. Thus, in this entry I also add some ‘flesh to the bones’ of the narrative.

When you try to understand, and forecast, what is going to happen in the world economy, you need to ask yourself the following questions:

1. What country/countries have been the ‘engine(s)’?

2. What are the risks associated with them?

Who has been the engine?