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Finland, the next Ukraine?
Daily Thoughts

Finland, the next Ukraine?

Russia builds up, and there's a change in thinking

Tuomas Malinen's avatar
Tuomas Malinen
May 30, 2025
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GnS Economics Newsletter
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Finland, the next Ukraine?
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From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

I think I will conclude this week with a few insights regarding the geopolitical situation in Ukraine and around Finland, following my speculative "rant" yesterday. In my worst-case scenarios, I have been anticipating the collapse of the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) for some time. This has not happened, and I don’t know whether it is a good thing anymore, because Ukraine is being destroyed. It would be better for the war to end, regardless of the territorial losses.

Now, there are developments—something is happening, noted even by the FT:

That sense of exhaustion and frustration is spreading through the ranks. Among both seasoned officers and newly mobilised troops, morale is fraying — worn down by a growing feeling that there is no clear plan to end the war, and that lives are being sacrificed for nothing.

Alas, the morale in the ranks of the AFU is collapsing, and the failed promises of President Trump on quick peace are infuriating them (I urge you to read the whole piece). Nevertheless, something much more worrying is happening in Russia and on Finnish borders.

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