Failure in Istanbul

War is just a game of survival (for some)

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

While the “negotiations” for a truce in Ukraine have finally commenced in Istanbul, we can already conclude them as failed. On Tuesday, I commented on them in X.

This sequel follows my analysis in Failure in Jeddah, where I analyzed (forecasted) the results of the truce negotiations held in Saudi Arabia in mid-March, led by the U.S.

I am beginning to think that President Trump has budged under pressure. He flip-flops with his decisions concerning the war, which risks making him an unreliable negotiation partner. If Kreml reaches this conclusion with him, we can throw any hopes for quick peace and survival of Ukraine away. This is because, if Russia sees herself left alone in this, Kreml is likely to seek the control of most of Ukraine (capitulation).

I have received some criticism regarding this from supporters of President Trump. However, you need to understand that I and we at GnS Economics are in the business of forecasting and not in the business of pursuing a political career. You also need to understand that we are unyielding on this. While my views on X and in interviews are politicized, they only aim to push developments in the right direction (the least amount of harm to humanity). Here, and especially in the GnS Economics Newsletter, we serve only you and write only with the aim of producing the best possible forecast of future events. I hope everyone understands the context now.

Yet, when what comes to Ukraine, everything revolves around President Zelenskyy. The unfortunate fact is that he cannot even really negotiate peace because it would risk his life.