Today, I (unsurprisingly) feel the need to explain myself. While my assessment of the ceasefire holding (extending) was 60%, GNS Economics published a warning of a “heightened likelihood of the war re-starting” yesterday.
The first thing you need to understand is that we operate in two different dimensions. Here, in these pieces, I want to speculate more, but GnS Economics is first and foremost responsible for its customers. Warnings are a crucial part of our service offering. We do not simply warn about developments that we’ll see coming with near 100% certainty. We warn of heightened risks of major events and issue warnings and revocations (and revocations of revocations) accordingly.
Yesterday, I received information on an IRGC announcement considering Israel (the “Zionist entity”). There was also a deal, which Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, rejected. I assumed that this was because the leadership of the IRGC (and the Iranian Army) rejected it.
Today, I received information that the Iranian strike on the U.S. base in Kuwait would have been very destructive. The strike seems to have aimed at degrading the Kuwait base’s ability to act as a command node. Such a scenario would also explain recent rumors that the Trump administration would be desperately seeking a deal through various channels. The humiliation that likely awaits the U.S. if a second round commences would probably be massive. However, these are just uncorroborated reports and rumors at this point.
Conversely, the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee has reportedly stated that there is no intention to transfer enriched uranium to a third country. I consider this to be the major sticking point, as the nuclear-armed (genocidal) Israel feels threatened by the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran, and because Israelis know this is something Iran will not agree to (remember also that Israel is unlikely to survive a peace).
For these reasons, our warning of risk of immediate restarting of the war remains, even while the underlying current is towards peace (and U.S. defeat). The only question is, how deep of a hole will the U.S.-Israel axis dig for themselves and for the world before that happens?
I share a speculative but very important recent piece of information for our paid subscribers below.
Have a great weekend,
Tuomas
