Deprcon Recession Warning
The U.S. (Free)
A just published analysis by our CEO Tuomas Malinen implies that the U.S. is about to enter a recession. We will continue to analyze the situation in our May Outlook, but based on the analysis by Tuomas and our earlier findings, we issue a Deprcon Recession Warning for the U.S. economy.
What we mean by the U.S. entering a recession is that, while the gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. is likely to grow for 1-2 quarters, or more, depending on the level of stimulus which is running extremely high, the momentum of the U.S. economy will keep on declining. Unemployment will start to creep up, consumer confidence will ebb further and manufacturing contraction will accelerate. There are likely to be up-and-downs in economic indicators, but when we observe them in the fall, we are likely to notice that they have been trending down.
Thus, we are not arguing that the U.S. has entered a so called technical recession, usually accounted by two consecutive negative GDP prints, but that her economy has entered a persistent economic decline, which will lead to a technical recession and further even to an economic depression. We continue with this topic in our May World Economic Outlook.
Paywall and one sentence removed from the beginning on 8/22/2024.
Disclaimer:
The information contained herein is current as at the date of this entry. The information presented here is considered reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Changes may occur in the circumstances after the date of this entry and the information contained in this post may not hold true in the future.
No information contained in this entry should be construed as investment advice. GnS Economics nor Tuomas Malinen cannot be held responsible for errors or omissions in the data presented. Readers should always consult their own personal financial or investment advisor before making any investment decision, and readers using this post do so solely at their own risk.
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