Deprcon Outlook

May: U.S. recession and China shocker

In this Outlook, we concentrate on two topics: Scenario forecasts and on assessing the timing of the U.S. recession.

Uncertainty in the world is currently running extremely high, like our warning rather graphically noted. The only way to shed some light on it, is through scenario forecasting. We build three scenarios for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, with differing assumptions. Needless to say that forecasted GDP growth rates vary wildly from a something of a recovery to, essentially, a Great Depression 2.0.

We also analyze four variables that have a history of providing a reliable pre-warning of an impending recession. We find that three of them signal the onset of an U.S. recession in the near-future.

GDP Scenario Forecasts