Ceasefire!

Hope springs eternal; Into the next one

Today, most gladly, it was the time for this.

Apologizing that I criticized the methods of President Trump was probably a bit overboard, but I have been harshly critical of him, doubting his aims and whether he has “sold out.” Today we learned that he has not, and I stand corrected, and I could not be happier about that. I think apologizing for your mistakes is a sign of personal integrity, and I always do that if I am wrong. In my defense, I noted yesterday that

The theory, published by Lord Bebo, a known pro-Russian account on X, states that the negotiations in Oman between the U.S. and Iran held before the strikes would have led to a compromise where Iran and the U.S. would declare victory after the strikes and Iran would launch a “retaliation” on some abandoned U.S. base. After this, a ceasefire would be announced. This was an entertaining theory yesterday, but then Israel launched one of the heaviest attacks of this campaign, with Israeli leadership announcing that the campaign is “ongoing.” Still, this theory was so plausible that I would give it a few more days.

This is also because the options for President Trump and Israel are getting limited. While Israel inflicts damage on Iran, Iran continues to launch its missiles. Moreover, Iran keeps moving to more and more destructive (modern) missile types in accordance with the war of attrition policy they declared after the initial strikes by Israel.

Critical analysis is the backbone of both scientific method and healthy public discourse. I have lost some of my long-time (MAGA) subscribers because of my criticism of President Trump, but that’s the price I am (easily) willing to pay for the right to pursue the analysis I deem the most important. Errors are an integral part of human existence, and one should not be afraid of making them.

That said, I also congratulate myself today.

My prediction was off by a meager one day. My regret is that I did not write this more clearly here. Part of the reason was that I was sick that day and was writing that deep in a cold from my sofa. Still, I should have written out my most likely scenario more clearly on Friday, when I noted

Based on the above, we can conclude that Israel’s stealth attack on Iran has failed to bring the Iranian regime to its knees. This also implies that a ‘checkmate’ is approaching Israel. The options to escape this are limited. Effectively, there are just three:

1. A ceasefire is brokered between Israel and Iran by the U.S. (which would be stronger if backed by China/Russia).

2. The U.S. joins the war (possibly with nukes).

3. Israel resorts to its nuclear weapons.

My apologies on that.

My X account and entries here are closely intertwined, but they live their own lives still, because X is also a political tool for me, while here “cruel objectivity” is my only aim. Some of you have even complained about that, but my mission here is to forecast what is likely to come next (and/or in the worst-case scenario). I hope you all understand this from henceforth. Let’s now analyze the current situation in a bit more detail.