Black Swan Outlook

Special Report: Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate

Abandon all hope, ye who enter. -Dante

This will be our first deep look into the world we are currently hurtling towards to, which is a world, where the usage of nuclear weapons would become generally accepted. Such an end-result is naturally not guaranteed, but currently we are heading towards the first military use of a tactical (low-yield, low-radiation) nuclear weapon. Such an event would carry a ‘long shadow’ and a potential to change both the course of history and our societies in a profound manner. This Special Report is made to prepare our customers to the emerging of such a world.

We will naturally provide updates to our economic forecasts and forecasts on China’s debt stimulus as well as on economic indicators. Yet, we will concentrate on mapping the changes on a global level that a tactical nuclear strike would likely bring. In the worst case, this will occur in the coming months, or weeks.

This Special Report is based on the research of Tuomas on nuclear deterrence, which is a topic he has been working with since May. He has already published one academic working paper on the topic, and he continues to deepen his analysis of the changing nature of nuclear deterrence.

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