Another metric sends a U.S. recession warning; Part I

Daily Thoughts 28 Mar 2025

From Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy.

The private sector yield curve has turned upwards, signaling an approaching U.S. recession. This is how it looks now.

The difference between the U.S. Baa -rated corporate bonds with maturities of 20(+) years and the bank prime rate. Source: GnS Econoimics, St. Louis Fed, NBER

I explained the private sector yield curve in May: